Post by Moorestown Big Dogs on Oct 4, 2023 13:01:55 GMT -5
Adjust the Costs of Contracts?
In looking at how changes to the cost for Draft Picks would improve the Contract Leagues, my goal is to find rates that make the investment of time and energy into researching prospects still quite valuable, while at the same time creating costs that would drive more players onto the Free Agent market. After all, they are contract leagues, where bidding on contract’s is meant to be a key facet of the game.
To this end, my best suggestion at this time would be to keep the resign structure as it is for prospects: promoted prospects on one year deals, resigns at 50%, then 50%, then 225%. The promotion price should be bumped slightly as follows: 1st round picks $4, 2nd round $3, 3rd round $2, and 4th and 5th rounds $1 (if they exist) Let’s face it, most 1st round picks are not brilliant deep dives on players, they are recent top draft picks expected to become stars, so $4 is not ridiculous, whereas finding someone worth having in the 4th or 5th round is usually based on research, opinion, and luck.
And we should move the multi-year contract yearly increase rate to 20% from 10%. I looked at 10, 20, 25, 30, & 50% and what they made the costs up through year 10. (A $4 prospect at 50% yearly bumps is $232.50 in year 10, so that is too much, lol) A quick look at the numbers for the most likely options (10-20-30%):
Initial %bump Year 5 Year 9 Year 10
1 10 2.25 5.00 11.25
1 20 3.00 8.25 18.75
1 30 3.75 12.75 28.75
2 10 4.50 9.25 21.00
2 20 5.50 14.50 32.75
2 30 10.50 23.50 53.00
3 10 6.25 13.00 29.25
3 20 8.25 21.75 49.00
3 30 10.50 35.00 78.00
4 10 8.25 17.00 38.25
4 20 10.50 27.25 62.50
4 30 12.00 35.50 103.50
As you can see, for $1 players, even at 20% they are still excellent values up through year 9, and even in the years that follow, superstars could be affordable. For $2 players almost all would become Free Agents after year 9, although the solid but not great players would probably become Free Agents in years 7-8-9. For $3 players a significant decision by GMs would come after year 5, as they would jump from $8.25 to $12.50, and certainly some would be re-signed for fewer than 4 years. And for the $4 players, again a decision after year 5, when they jump from $10.50 to $15.75 would free up some Free Agents. Another facet of this is that letting some of these former prospects go as they reach $12/$15/$18.50 etc. would be a more attractive option if you expected there to be a larger pool of decent Free Agents to bid on.
Okay, so far I have dealt exclusively with the Prospects and how two small adjustments would effect their salaries. (Add the $4 for 1st round and bump 2nd round to $3 & change the multi-year increase to 20%) That brings me to the two things I mentioned in my earlier post: Allowing the different leagues some room to be different, and making the minimum salary $2.00. Addressing the $2.00 minimum, I especially would like to see this for “In-Season” signings, meaning during the regular season of the MLB, NHL, NFL, or NBA. During pre-season, or the Frenzy as we call it, everybody has roster spots and Cap, so I don’t mind $1.00 signings, they are like the 4th or 5th round draft picks, a longshot. But during the season guys get through as $1.00 pick-ups due to limited roster flexibility or lack of available Cap (at least we would like there to be less available Cap), and those players then stay way below market. To be honest, I would prefer to see the rule be that In-Season signings can only be for 1 year, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing, so that is another way to address this.
As to the different leagues allowing for different approaches, I will leave those for each of the Commissioners to speak to, but I will observe that Basketball is currently in the midst of a very active Free Agent Frenzy, but as it is the youngest of the leagues, that is due to so many of the top players still having been originally signed rather than drafted. Football seems to be in the biggest mess, as I had to go to $73 to get the only worthwhile Running Back available, and the league ended the Free Agency period with more than 1/3 of Cap unspent.
Please share your thoughts, thank you.
In looking at how changes to the cost for Draft Picks would improve the Contract Leagues, my goal is to find rates that make the investment of time and energy into researching prospects still quite valuable, while at the same time creating costs that would drive more players onto the Free Agent market. After all, they are contract leagues, where bidding on contract’s is meant to be a key facet of the game.
To this end, my best suggestion at this time would be to keep the resign structure as it is for prospects: promoted prospects on one year deals, resigns at 50%, then 50%, then 225%. The promotion price should be bumped slightly as follows: 1st round picks $4, 2nd round $3, 3rd round $2, and 4th and 5th rounds $1 (if they exist) Let’s face it, most 1st round picks are not brilliant deep dives on players, they are recent top draft picks expected to become stars, so $4 is not ridiculous, whereas finding someone worth having in the 4th or 5th round is usually based on research, opinion, and luck.
And we should move the multi-year contract yearly increase rate to 20% from 10%. I looked at 10, 20, 25, 30, & 50% and what they made the costs up through year 10. (A $4 prospect at 50% yearly bumps is $232.50 in year 10, so that is too much, lol) A quick look at the numbers for the most likely options (10-20-30%):
Initial %bump Year 5 Year 9 Year 10
1 10 2.25 5.00 11.25
1 20 3.00 8.25 18.75
1 30 3.75 12.75 28.75
2 10 4.50 9.25 21.00
2 20 5.50 14.50 32.75
2 30 10.50 23.50 53.00
3 10 6.25 13.00 29.25
3 20 8.25 21.75 49.00
3 30 10.50 35.00 78.00
4 10 8.25 17.00 38.25
4 20 10.50 27.25 62.50
4 30 12.00 35.50 103.50
As you can see, for $1 players, even at 20% they are still excellent values up through year 9, and even in the years that follow, superstars could be affordable. For $2 players almost all would become Free Agents after year 9, although the solid but not great players would probably become Free Agents in years 7-8-9. For $3 players a significant decision by GMs would come after year 5, as they would jump from $8.25 to $12.50, and certainly some would be re-signed for fewer than 4 years. And for the $4 players, again a decision after year 5, when they jump from $10.50 to $15.75 would free up some Free Agents. Another facet of this is that letting some of these former prospects go as they reach $12/$15/$18.50 etc. would be a more attractive option if you expected there to be a larger pool of decent Free Agents to bid on.
Okay, so far I have dealt exclusively with the Prospects and how two small adjustments would effect their salaries. (Add the $4 for 1st round and bump 2nd round to $3 & change the multi-year increase to 20%) That brings me to the two things I mentioned in my earlier post: Allowing the different leagues some room to be different, and making the minimum salary $2.00. Addressing the $2.00 minimum, I especially would like to see this for “In-Season” signings, meaning during the regular season of the MLB, NHL, NFL, or NBA. During pre-season, or the Frenzy as we call it, everybody has roster spots and Cap, so I don’t mind $1.00 signings, they are like the 4th or 5th round draft picks, a longshot. But during the season guys get through as $1.00 pick-ups due to limited roster flexibility or lack of available Cap (at least we would like there to be less available Cap), and those players then stay way below market. To be honest, I would prefer to see the rule be that In-Season signings can only be for 1 year, which accomplishes pretty much the same thing, so that is another way to address this.
As to the different leagues allowing for different approaches, I will leave those for each of the Commissioners to speak to, but I will observe that Basketball is currently in the midst of a very active Free Agent Frenzy, but as it is the youngest of the leagues, that is due to so many of the top players still having been originally signed rather than drafted. Football seems to be in the biggest mess, as I had to go to $73 to get the only worthwhile Running Back available, and the league ended the Free Agency period with more than 1/3 of Cap unspent.
Please share your thoughts, thank you.
