Statistical Correlation between Stat Totals and Wins/Losses
May 12, 2022 12:27:23 GMT -5
DFW Demolition likes this
Post by Moorestown Big Dogs on May 12, 2022 12:27:23 GMT -5
As you all know by now, I like to look at the data and try to figure out what it means and how it should effect the my thinking in our leagues. So I went through all of our Contract League Stats from 2021 and matched that against Wins & Losses during the season of play. In other words, if you lead the league in a Category for the year (or are 5th,8th, or last, etc.) how does that match up with getting you wins.
I ranked all of our teams in all 12 categories 1 through 16 based on the Seasons totals, and also ranked them 1-16 based on games over .500. Here is what I came up with. If the rankings were a perfect match there would be a 0.00 deviation. If all were off by one spot, a 1.00, and so on.
K's 1.25 This is the smallest deviation, and basically means that strikeouts are a pretty true category. Where you fit in total is pretty much where you fit in Won/Loss.
Wins 1.56 Second smallest deviation, and a bit of a surprise. I had expected Wins to be all over the place week to week, but I learned that they are pretty true to form.
Saves 1.63 Just as with Wins, I had expected a bigger variance here.
Runs 1.75 I had expected this to be second to strikeouts, so 4th is not far off. Run scoring is pretty steady.
RBI 2.19 Middle of the pack, I had expected it to be ahead of Wins and Save, but what do I know.
Holds 2.31 I had expected Holds to be right next to Wins and Saves, and it isn't far off, but this will need more investigating.
SB's 2.56 About where I thought they would be, right next to HR.
HR 2.75 They come in bunches, and the chicks dig them.
WHIP 2.75 Tied with HR, about where I expected it to be.
Ave. 3.19 A fairly volatile stat, but still further down the list than I had expected.
OPS 3.81 2nd highest deviation, I had expected it to be dead even with Average.
ERA 5.50 Wow, that is a lot of variance. I expected it to be volatile, but this is very high.
There were 6 teams that had batting variance of 7 or more with Aesculus Glabra the highest at -10 in Batting Average. They were 3rd overall but 13th in Won/Loss.
There were 10 teams that had pitching variance of 7 or more with Iowa Bombers and Desert Dogs on opposite ends at +/-11 in ERA. The Bombers moved up from 14th to 3rd, and the Dogs dropped from 2nd to 13th. The Desert Dogs had a season long ERA of 3.72 but went 11-14, with the Iowa Bombers at 4.21 but went 14-11. So a half a run difference in ERA proved to be no help due to volatility in the category.
One other thought. The three steadiest categories are all pitching, as is the least steady, while the batting categories all fit in between. Not sure yet what that will mean as I draft and buy free agents, but it should mean something, lol.
I ranked all of our teams in all 12 categories 1 through 16 based on the Seasons totals, and also ranked them 1-16 based on games over .500. Here is what I came up with. If the rankings were a perfect match there would be a 0.00 deviation. If all were off by one spot, a 1.00, and so on.
K's 1.25 This is the smallest deviation, and basically means that strikeouts are a pretty true category. Where you fit in total is pretty much where you fit in Won/Loss.
Wins 1.56 Second smallest deviation, and a bit of a surprise. I had expected Wins to be all over the place week to week, but I learned that they are pretty true to form.
Saves 1.63 Just as with Wins, I had expected a bigger variance here.
Runs 1.75 I had expected this to be second to strikeouts, so 4th is not far off. Run scoring is pretty steady.
RBI 2.19 Middle of the pack, I had expected it to be ahead of Wins and Save, but what do I know.
Holds 2.31 I had expected Holds to be right next to Wins and Saves, and it isn't far off, but this will need more investigating.
SB's 2.56 About where I thought they would be, right next to HR.
HR 2.75 They come in bunches, and the chicks dig them.
WHIP 2.75 Tied with HR, about where I expected it to be.
Ave. 3.19 A fairly volatile stat, but still further down the list than I had expected.
OPS 3.81 2nd highest deviation, I had expected it to be dead even with Average.
ERA 5.50 Wow, that is a lot of variance. I expected it to be volatile, but this is very high.
There were 6 teams that had batting variance of 7 or more with Aesculus Glabra the highest at -10 in Batting Average. They were 3rd overall but 13th in Won/Loss.
There were 10 teams that had pitching variance of 7 or more with Iowa Bombers and Desert Dogs on opposite ends at +/-11 in ERA. The Bombers moved up from 14th to 3rd, and the Dogs dropped from 2nd to 13th. The Desert Dogs had a season long ERA of 3.72 but went 11-14, with the Iowa Bombers at 4.21 but went 14-11. So a half a run difference in ERA proved to be no help due to volatility in the category.
One other thought. The three steadiest categories are all pitching, as is the least steady, while the batting categories all fit in between. Not sure yet what that will mean as I draft and buy free agents, but it should mean something, lol.