Post by Moorestown Big Dogs on Jun 21, 2021 11:00:38 GMT -5
In my ongoing search to better understand what stats matter most, how best to structure my teams (Bats v Arms, Power v Speed, SP v RP, Saves v Holds, etc) I took a look at our 10 Dynasty leagues (I know this is the Contract league Board, but we all play in those as well) and broke down each category by what the average team had and the high and low for that category. I also compared the 10 different leagues to see whether there was great variance or great similarity amongst them. While I do not yet know what to make of it all, though I am starting to have some ideas, here is what I found:
The 4 Percentage categories (Ave, OPS, ERA, WHIP) - One of the things I found, that is nice because it is so easy to remember, is that the overall Batting average for our leagues is .250, and the OPS is .750. ERA overall is about 3.88, and WHIP is 1.22. All of these are very consistent through the leagues, with only small variances. The highs and lows for teams within leagues are a lot more varied, ranging from .219 to .278 for Average, .662 to .836 for OPS, 2.87 to 5.27 for ERA, and 1.05 to 1.47 for WHIP.
The 3 High Quantity Stat Categories (Runs, RBI, Strikeouts) - For Runs, the leagues average right around 333 per team at this point, and we are 11.5 weeks in, so that is about 29 per team per week. With RBI, the leagues average 318, with that being just under 28 per team per week. And in Strikeouts the leagues average just over 560, which is just under 48 per team per week. The key here is that while Runs and RBI tend to run pretty consistently in individual team variance, with the worst teams about 7 Runs or RBI a week below the league average and the best teams about 7 above, the Strikeouts have a wider gap, with the top teams about 21 K above the average and the bottom teams about 15 below. So the variance in Runs and RBI is about .50 (7 above and below 28), and for Strikeouts about .75 (a range of 36 compared to an average of 48).
Next we have the 3 Pitcher results categories (Wins, Saves, Holds) - In Wins, the leagues average a bit over 35 per team, in Saves, a bit over 21, and in Holds, just under 23. On a weekly basis this equals 3 Wins, 2 Saves, and 2 Holds, so even adding 1 a week makes a big difference here. With Wins the Top teams are generally in the 50's and the Bottom teams in the low 20's, so the range is almost the same as the average. In Saves, the Top teams are in the upper 50's and the Bottom teams usually have just 1! So the range is much bigger than the average. And with Holds the Top teams are usually in the upper 30's to low 40's with the Bottom teams as low as 0! And again the range is much larger than the average.
And finally, the 2 Batting categories that feature power versus speed (HR & SB) - The leagues are very consistent in averaging just over 90 HR (8 per week) and 36 SB (a bit over 3 per week). The Top teams have hit 120 HR on average (10+ per week) and the Bottom teams in the 50's (4-5 per week), so the range is about 6 per week or .75 of the average, just like Strikeouts. And the Top running teams average about 6 SB per week (upper 60's on average) while the bottom teams are at 16 total (1.5 per week), so here the range is again larger than the average.
My early thoughts are that Holds are overlooked, especially since there are always decent Holds pitchers available as FA. And that Strikeouts and Stolen Bases are areas that may be overvalued, and by that I mean that if you are above the league weekly average, you may not be gaining much by adding more as the spreads are quite wide.
Hopefully at least some of this will be of interest to you, and I always look forward to hearing other Manager's thoughts.
The 4 Percentage categories (Ave, OPS, ERA, WHIP) - One of the things I found, that is nice because it is so easy to remember, is that the overall Batting average for our leagues is .250, and the OPS is .750. ERA overall is about 3.88, and WHIP is 1.22. All of these are very consistent through the leagues, with only small variances. The highs and lows for teams within leagues are a lot more varied, ranging from .219 to .278 for Average, .662 to .836 for OPS, 2.87 to 5.27 for ERA, and 1.05 to 1.47 for WHIP.
The 3 High Quantity Stat Categories (Runs, RBI, Strikeouts) - For Runs, the leagues average right around 333 per team at this point, and we are 11.5 weeks in, so that is about 29 per team per week. With RBI, the leagues average 318, with that being just under 28 per team per week. And in Strikeouts the leagues average just over 560, which is just under 48 per team per week. The key here is that while Runs and RBI tend to run pretty consistently in individual team variance, with the worst teams about 7 Runs or RBI a week below the league average and the best teams about 7 above, the Strikeouts have a wider gap, with the top teams about 21 K above the average and the bottom teams about 15 below. So the variance in Runs and RBI is about .50 (7 above and below 28), and for Strikeouts about .75 (a range of 36 compared to an average of 48).
Next we have the 3 Pitcher results categories (Wins, Saves, Holds) - In Wins, the leagues average a bit over 35 per team, in Saves, a bit over 21, and in Holds, just under 23. On a weekly basis this equals 3 Wins, 2 Saves, and 2 Holds, so even adding 1 a week makes a big difference here. With Wins the Top teams are generally in the 50's and the Bottom teams in the low 20's, so the range is almost the same as the average. In Saves, the Top teams are in the upper 50's and the Bottom teams usually have just 1! So the range is much bigger than the average. And with Holds the Top teams are usually in the upper 30's to low 40's with the Bottom teams as low as 0! And again the range is much larger than the average.
And finally, the 2 Batting categories that feature power versus speed (HR & SB) - The leagues are very consistent in averaging just over 90 HR (8 per week) and 36 SB (a bit over 3 per week). The Top teams have hit 120 HR on average (10+ per week) and the Bottom teams in the 50's (4-5 per week), so the range is about 6 per week or .75 of the average, just like Strikeouts. And the Top running teams average about 6 SB per week (upper 60's on average) while the bottom teams are at 16 total (1.5 per week), so here the range is again larger than the average.
My early thoughts are that Holds are overlooked, especially since there are always decent Holds pitchers available as FA. And that Strikeouts and Stolen Bases are areas that may be overvalued, and by that I mean that if you are above the league weekly average, you may not be gaining much by adding more as the spreads are quite wide.
Hopefully at least some of this will be of interest to you, and I always look forward to hearing other Manager's thoughts.